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1. Population, Poverty, and Economic Development |
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2. Population, poverty and economic development |
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3. Debates about the relationship between high fertility/RPG and economic development/poverty |
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4. Broad consensus today that rising prosperity yields lower fertility and declining population growth rate |
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5. What do we know – macro? |
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6. Malthus vs Marx |
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7. 3 stages of thinking in the modern era |
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8. The importance of age structure |
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9. What do we know – micro? |
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10. Micro studies are fewer because good data are hard and expensive to collect : longitudinal household information But recent research using longitudinal household data (Canning & Schofield, Schultz & Joshi) strongly suggests that high fertility places se |
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11. What do we know - micro? |
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12. Population growth, high fertility and the MDGs |
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13. Figure 1 |
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14. Trends and prospects |
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15. Percentage living on less than $1/day |
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16. Poverty decline in Asia |
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17. World Bank |
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18. Africa |
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19. Conclusion |
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20. Sola schola et sanitate: Human Capital as the Root Cause and Priority for International Development? Wolfgang Lutz World Population Program, IIASA (Int. Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) Vienna Institute of Demography (VID), Austrian Academy o |
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21. Why a Latin motto and what does it mean? |
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22. International Development Policy is in a State of Confusion |
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23. Hypothesis: Human capital is the root cause of international development |
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24. Mortality under age 5 by mothers’ education (Source: DHS) |
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25. Total Fertility Rates by Level of Education |
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26. Population by Age, Sex, and Educational Attainment in Republic of Korea, 2000 |
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27. Population by Age, Sex, and Educational Attainment in Republic of Korea, 1970 |
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28. Advantages of this reconstructed data set over other existing ones |
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29. Human Capital vs. Process of Education |
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30. Principles of Population Projection by age, sex, and education |
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31. World Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 1970 |
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32. World Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2010 |
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33. World Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2050 |
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34. Alternative Education Scenarios to 2050 |
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35. Kenya 2000 |
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36. Kenya 1970 |
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37. Kenya 2050 – Fast Track Scenario |
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38. Kenya 2050 – Global Education Trend |
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39. Kenya 2050 – Constant Enrollment Rates |
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40. Kenya 2050 – Constant Absolute Enrollment Numbers |
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41. Lessons |
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42. The changing human capital distribution in the world |
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43. Based on the new IIASA-VID Educational Attainment data set for 120 countries for 1970-2000 previous (inconclusive) economic growth regressions could be re-estimated and finally showed consistently significant positive effects of improving educational atta |
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44. Education and Democracy |
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45. Systems Models Multi-sectoral computer models with systems of non-linear equations and feed-backs trying to capture real world interactions as comprehensively as possible are the best way for testing which factors are primary drivers and which are interme |
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46. National Success Stories |
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47. Alfred Sauvy, 1958 book “ Fertility and Survival: Population Problems from Malthus to Mao Tse-tung” |
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48. Conclusions |
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49. Comment Population and Poverty Human Capital |
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50. Population Crowding |
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51. Components of Population Growth |
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52. Mortality Reductions Health to Wealth: Mechanisms |
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53. Health and Saving |
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54. The role of fertility |
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55. Fertility and steady state working age share (theory) |
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56. Total fertility rates and working age shares in 2000 |
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57. Sub-Saharan Africa’s population |
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58. East Asia’s Population |
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59. Population and Poverty |
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60. Human Capital |
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61. Discussion |
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