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Vulnerability to climate change impacts is a function of exposure to climate/weather impacts, sensitivity to those impacts, and adaptive capacity of the economy. Exposure is a question of whether climate variability has any influence on an economic activity. Farming is an exposed sector. Office based service jobs generally are not. Raising flowers in a greenhouse reduces exposure. Sensitivity indicates whether an economic activity is affected by climatic changes. Again farming is climate sensitive, but some crops are more sensitive than others. Choosing a crop with a wide temperature or drought tolerance reduces sensitivity. Put another way, baseball is climate sensitive (games are stopped for rain); football is not. Playing either sport in a dome would reduce exposure. Adaptive capacity is the ability to anticipate and/or respond to climatic changes. This can be a matter of recognizing the need to plant less sensitive crops, changing zoning rules (and enforcing them) to reduce coastal vulnerability. Adaptation is a matter of building resilience by: Reducing exposure (reducing reliance on agriculture; diversifying economy; avoiding construction in floodplains, etc.) Reducing sensitivity (selecting more robust crops, planning for disasters, increasing margin of safety in infrastructure design, etc.) Increasing adaptive capacity (education, economic diversification, information/warnings)
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In thinking about vulnerability, it's useful to think about the development issue you are addressing and what assets are most important. Then, through discussions with community members, new reports, assessment of physical evidence (such as a waterline from past flooding), you can get a sense of exposure. Again, sources of information may be memories, maps like the one above (in this study we went on to map the extent of salt water by looking at the presence of salt tolerant plants and comparing that salt wedge with the locations of intakes), and models.
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Sensitivity is a bit different than exposure. Sensitivity is a measure of whether a climate impact will result in damages or benefits. For example, flooding will have different effects on neighboring houses if one is built on stilts and the other is built on a slab. The 3 little pigs faced the same exposure to the wolf, but the straw and wood houses were far more sensitive than the brick house. In thinking about sensitivity, it's useful to look at past events and their effects. Were similarly exposed assets affected differently? Why? Examples may include structural damages, crop losses, accumulation of sediments after an inland storm or coastal erosion. Can the attributes that contributed to resilience be identified? Can they be replicated?
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Adaptive capacity addresses the ability to anticipate and respond to potential impacts. The image shows cases of Dengue fever on either side of the US-Mexico border. In 1922, there were 500,000 cases in Texas. From 1980 to 1996, there were 43 cases on the US side, but 50,000 on the Mexican side. Communities on either side are equally exposed and sensitive, but the impact is quite different. The difference is due to window screens, air conditioning, insecticide, bug repellent, and a public health service that takes Dengue and malaria very seriously. Elements of adaptive capacity are listed in the slide, and boosting those elements are a means to building resilience.
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