The Angle from T. Rowe Price

In this episode of The Angle from T. Rowe Price, Justin Thomson, head of the T. Rowe Price Investment Institute, sits down with Dan Gardner, bestselling author and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, to explore what sets consistently good forecasters apart and what investors can learn from them. We find out why intellectual humility is foundational to good judgment, why investors should think in probabilities rather than certainties, and why starting with the base rate can sharpen a forecast. Dan Gardner also discusses how to update views in small increments, why admitting mistakes can strengthen rather than threaten an investor’s identity, and why good questions may become more valuable as high-quality answers become more abundant.